Forecasting Under Five Mortality Rate for El Salvador Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for El Salvador from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied to forecast U5MR in this study. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.2respectively based on minimum MSE. The findings of this study revealed that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Hence, we encourage the government of El Salvador to address various challenges encountered by pediatric patients at all levels of healthcare.