Forecasting Under Five Mortality Rate for Hungary Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Hungary from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the Holt’s linear method is stable for forecasting U5MR. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual U5MR will be under control over the out of sample period. Therefore, the government should continue supporting maternal and child health programs in order to end all preventable under five deaths.