Forecasting Under Five Mortality Rate for Portugal Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Portugal from 1960 to 2020to predict future trends of Portugal over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate in Portugal. The ANN model projections revealed that annual U5MR will hover around 3 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, the Portuguese government must continue supporting the maternal and child health program in order to keep under five mortality under control.