Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Venezuela from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of Venezuela over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria indicate that the applied the Holt’s linear method is stable in
forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing parameters α
and β are 0.5 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential
smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will increase throughout
the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage health authorities in
Venezuela to address all the various issues that affect the quality of the
maternal and child health program at all levels of healthcare.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 545-549