Forecasting Under Five Mortality Rate for Venezuela Using Double Exponential Smoothing (HOLT)

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Venezuela from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of Venezuela over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied the Holt’s linear method is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing parameters α and β are 0.5 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will increase throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage health authorities in Venezuela to address all the various issues that affect the quality of the maternal and child health program at all levels of healthcare.