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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting the Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Cuba Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 7 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 | Pages: 200-204

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 18-08-2022

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607041

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Cuba from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation statistics indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR in Cuba. Holt’s linear (double exponential smoothing) model was applied in this study. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study showed that annual U5MR will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore the Cuban government to continue supporting maternal and child health program activities in order to maintain under five mortality below 25 deaths per 1000 live births. 

Keywords

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, U5MR


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Forecasting the Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Cuba Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, pp 200-204, July 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607041

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