Predicting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Barbados Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Barbados from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast performance measures indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting U5MR in Barbados. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue to drop throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Barbados to continue channeling adequate resources to maternal and child health program activities in order to end all preventable under five deaths.