Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Barbados from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast performance
measures indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is
stable in forecasting U5MR in Barbados. Optimal values of smoothing constants α
and β are0.9 and0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The exponential
smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue to drop
throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of
Barbados to continue channeling adequate resources to maternal and child health
program activities in order to end all preventable under five deaths.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 112-115