Predicting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Djibouti Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Djibouti from 1976 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR in Djibouti. The double exponential (Holt’s linear) smoothing model was applied to forecast U5MR. Optimal values of smoothing parameters α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of study indicate that annual U5MR will decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, authorities in Djibouti are encouraged to allocate more resources to the maternal and child health (MNCH) program. There is need to address the various challenges encountered by pediatric patients at all levels of healthcare such as healthcare costs, accessibility and need for timeous healthcare interventions.