Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Djibouti from 1976 to 2020 to predict future trends
of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR in
Djibouti. The double exponential (Holt’s linear) smoothing model was applied to
forecast U5MR. Optimal values of smoothing parameters α and β are 0.9 and 0.1
respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of study indicate that annual
U5MR will decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, authorities in
Djibouti are encouraged to allocate more resources to the maternal and child
health (MNCH) program. There is need to address the various challenges
encountered by pediatric patients at all levels of healthcare such as
healthcare costs, accessibility and need for timeous healthcare interventions.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 205-209