Predicting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Ecuador Using Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate for Ecuador from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting under five mortality
rate. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections indicated that U5MR will continue
to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities
in Ecuador to allocate more resources to the maternal and child health program
so as to keep under five mortality below 25 deaths per 1000 live births.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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