Predicting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Honduras Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Honduras from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation statistics indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The results of this study indicated that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Hence, we implore the authorities in Honduras to allocate more resources to the maternal and child health (MNCH) program and address all the issues that affect the health of under five children particularly in the rural areas.