Predicting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Mauritius Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Mauritius from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation statistics indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. The ANN model projections revealed that U5MR will remain around 15 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Mauritius to channel more resources to the maternal and child health program to ensure availability of adequate medical supplies and medical staff to keep under five mortality under control.