Predicting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Nepal Using a Machine Learning Technique

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Nepal from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of UMR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. ANN model predictions revealed that U5MR will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Nepal to identify and address all the factors that significantly contribute to under five mortality in the country.