Predicting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for New Zealand Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for New Zealand from 1960 to 2020to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. ANN model projections revealed that annual U5MR will hover around 5 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, authorities in New Zealand should continue supporting maternal and child health program activities to end all avoidable under five deaths in the country.