Prediction of Under Five Mortality Rate For Libya Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Libya from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Holt’s linear method was applied to forecast U5MR in Libya. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicated that annual U5MR will decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Libyan authorities to continue supporting the maternal and child health program to ensure availability of medical supplies and medical staff at every healthcare facility across the country.