Projecting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate For Kuwait Using Holt’s Linear Method

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Kuwait from 1960 to 2020to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate in Kuwait. Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied in this paper to project under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are   0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual U5MR will continue to drop over the out of sample period. Hence, authorities in Kuwait should create local strategies that will effectively address the various issues that contribute significantly to mortality among under five children.