Projecting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Rwanda Using a Machine Learning Algorithm

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Rwanda from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of under-five mortality rate over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting U5MR. ANN model projections revealed that the annualU5MR will hover around 42 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore the Rwandan government to focus on solving all the pertinent issues affecting under five children especially in the rural areas. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 438-441

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607096

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