Projecting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for St Lucia Using an Artificial Intelligence Technique
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate (U5MR) for St Lucia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in
forecasting under five mortality rate. ANN model projections revealed that U5MR
will hover around 20 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample
period. Therefore, we encourage health authorities in St Lucia to address all
the challenges that affect the quality of maternal and child health (MNCH)
across the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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