Projecting Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for St Lucia Using an Artificial Intelligence Technique

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for St Lucia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. ANN model projections revealed that U5MR will hover around 20 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage health authorities in St Lucia to address all the challenges that affect the quality of maternal and child health (MNCH) across the country.