Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for the Central African Republic from 1960 to 2020 to
predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and
forecast evaluation statistics indicate that Holt’s linear model is stable in
forecasting U5MR in Central African Republic. Optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
exponential smoothing model projections indicate that annual U5MR will decline
but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, health
authorities in the Central African Republic are encouraged to focus on
addressing major drivers of under-five mortality in the country and allocate
more resources to the maternal and child health program.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 153-157