Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Indonesia Using an Artificial Intelligence Technique

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Indonesia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections revealed that U5MR will remain around 20 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Indonesian government to address all the factors that significantly contribute to under five mortality across the country especially in the rural areas and disadvantaged communities.