Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Malawi Using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Malawi from 1961 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline from around 40 to 35.6 deaths per 1000 live births over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Malawian government to address all the major challenges that hinder the success of the maternal and child health (MNCH) program particularly in the rural areas.