Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Seychelles Using a Machine Learning Method

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate for Seychelles from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of under-five mortality rate over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. ANN model projections revealed thatU5MR will remain around 14 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample of period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Seychelles to address all the pertinent challenges that hinder the success of the maternal and child health program.