Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate in Bahrain Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Bahrain from 1960 to 2020to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation statistics indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting U5MR. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are   0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The Holt’s linear model projections suggest that annual U5MR will continue to drop throughout the out of sample period. Hence, health authorities should relentlessly provide funding to the maternal and child health program in order to maintain this desirable trend of under-five mortality.