Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate in Syria Using a Machine Learning Technique

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Syria from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. ANN model projections suggest that annual U5MR will initially increase from around 26.6 deaths per 1000 live births in 2021 to 34 deaths per 1000 live births in 2025 and then decrease to 22 deaths per 1000 live births in 2030.Therefore, we encourage the Syrian government to address all the major factors that affect the quality of maternal and child healthcare program in the country.