International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality in Afghanistan Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Afghanistan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Afghanistan to prioritize the welfare of women and children through formulation of appropriate maternal and child health policies that will help in the achievement of SDG3 by 2030. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 81-85

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607015

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