International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality in Afghanistan Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 7 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 | Pages: 81-85

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 18-08-2022

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607015

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Afghanistan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Afghanistan to prioritize the welfare of women and children through formulation of appropriate maternal and child health policies that will help in the achievement of SDG3 by 2030. 

Keywords

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, U5MR


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality in Afghanistan Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, pp 81-85, July 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607015
Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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