Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Guinea from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. This study
applies the Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model to predict U5MR. The
optimal values for smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively
based on minimum MSE. The model projections revealed that annual U5MR will
decline but remain high over the out of the sample period. Therefore, we
encourage the government of Guinea to focus on improving the working conditions
of healthcare workers and ensuring adequate medical supplies at all levels of
healthcare by allocating more resources to the maternal and child (MNCH)
program.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 264-268