Tracking Haiti’s Future Progress towards Achieving Substantial Reduction of Under Five Mortality By 2030
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate for Haiti from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residual and forecast evaluation criteria
indicate that the applied Holt’s linear model is stable in forecasting under
five mortality rate in Haiti. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are
0.2 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing
model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline but still remain high
over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Haiti
to focus on channeling more resources to the maternal and child health (MNCH)
program to ensure availability of adequate medical supplies and staff
especially in the rural areas. The
government should address all the major factors that significantly contribute
to under five mortality.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
UNICEF. (2019).
Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the
UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
United
Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable
development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
UN (2020)
sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl
development/development-agenda
UNICEF
(2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
World
Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote
wellbeing for all at all ages.
Ramachandran
V., and Walz J (2015). Haiti: Where has all the money gone? J Haitian Studies,
21, 1, 26–65.
Jacobs LD.,
Judd T M., and Bhutta ZA (2016). Addressing the child and maternal mortality
crisis in Haiti through a central referral hospital providing countrywide care.
Perm J, 20, 2, 59–70.
World Bank
(2015). Global Poverty Working Group. Investing in people to fight poverty in
Haiti: reflections for evidence-based policy making. Washington, D.C.: World
Bank Group.
Schuurmans
J., Borgundvaag E., Finaldi P., Senat-Delva R., Desauguste F., and Badjo C
(2021). Risk factors for adverse outcomes in women with high-risk pregnancy and
their neonates, Haiti. Rev PanamSaludPublica, 2021, 45, e147.
United
Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development
2016.
World
Health Organization (WHO) (2017). Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).
Health in the Americas: Haiti: PAHO.
World
Health Organization (WHO) (2016). Global Health Observatory (GHO) country
views. Haiti statistics summary (2002-present): WHO.
United
Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) (2020). UNICEF data: monitoring the situation
of children and women.
