Tracking Kenya’s Future Progress towards Substantial Reduction of under Five Mortality by 2030 using Artificial Neural Networks

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Kenya from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections indicate that U5MR will remain around 42 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore the Kenyan government to allocate more resources to the maternal and child health (MNCH) program in order to address all the health challenges that contribute to high numbers of under five deaths especially in the rural areas.