International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking the Future Path of Under Five Mortality Rate for Canada Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 7 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 | Pages: 163-167

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 18-08-2022

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607033

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Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Canada from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that Holt’s linear model is stable in forecasting U5MR in Canada. The optimal smoothing parameters α and β are 0.9and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The findings of the study showed that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore we implore health authorities in Canada to design strategies that will help keep under five mortality below 25 deaths per 1000 live births. 
Keywords

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, U5MR


Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Tracking the Future Path of Under Five Mortality Rate for Canada Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, pp 163-167, July 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607033

 

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