Tracking the Future Path of Under Five Mortality Rate for Congo Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Congo from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting U5MR. Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied in this study to forecast U5MR for Congo. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3    respectively based on minimum MSE. Model projections indicate that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of sample period. Hence, we implore the government to channel more resources to maternal and child health program activities with special attention being given to capacitating healthcare facilities and improving working conditions of healthcare workers particularly in the rural areas.