Tracking the Future Path of Under Five Mortality Rate for Israel Using Double Exponential Smoothing

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Israel from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR in the State of Israel. The Holt’s linear method was used to forecast under five mortality rate. Optimal values for smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1respectively based on minimum MSE. The study findings indicate that annual under five mortality will be under control over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage Israel authorities to design child health policies that will keep under five mortality below 25 deaths per 1000 live births.