Tracking the Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate in the UK Using a Machine Learning Algorithm

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for the United Kingdom (UK) from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied the ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable in forecasting U5MR. ANN model projections revealed that annual U5MR will hover around 4.5 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, health authorities in the UK must continue providing financial support to the maternal and child health (MNCH) program and addressing the various challenges being faced by socially disadvantaged ethnic minority groups.