Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Yemen from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation statistics
indicate that that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is
stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double
exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will remain
high over the out of sample period. Therefore, health authorities in Yemen must
address all the major challenges that hinder successful implementation of the maternal
and child health program in order to improve child survival across the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 554-558