Yemen is Trailing behind in the Reduction of under Five Mortality: Evidence From the Holt’s Linear Method

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Yemen from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation statistics indicate that that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, health authorities in Yemen must address all the major challenges that hinder successful implementation of the maternal and child health program in order to improve child survival across the country.