SMART TEA: Churn, Trend, Inventory and Sales Prediction System Using Machine Learning

J.H.P VithanageFaculty of Computing, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri LankaSalwathura S.RFaculty of Computing, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri LankaDe Silva D.K.T.J.SFaculty of Computing, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri LankaWickramasinghe D.K.G.T.IFaculty of Computing, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri LankaSuriya KumariFaculty of Computing, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri LankaUthpala SamarakoonFaculty of Computing, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri Lanka

Vol 7 No 11 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 11, November 2023 | Pages: 453-460

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 17-11-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.711061

Abstract

Managing operations at a tea factory requires consistency and planning. This paper presents a complete platform that uses advanced machine learning methods specifically designed for the tea sector. Sales prediction, churn prediction, trend prediction, and smart inventory management are the four essential features of our solution. While using Neural Networks for Churn Prediction offers exact insights into customer churn, utilizing Gradient Boosting for Sales Prediction guarantees accurate revenue estimates. Linear regression models were used for trend prediction and smart inventory management to enable efficient utilization of resources and trend identification. With the help of this integrated system, tea companies can now operate more profitably and sustainably in a market that is always changing. This research acts as a beacon, demonstrating the revolutionary potential of data-driven management as operations in the tea industry evolve.

Keywords

Sri Lankan Tea Factories, Neural Networks, Gradient Boosting Regressor, Ensemble Methods, Linear regression, Sales Price prediction, Churn prediction, Trend prediction, Inventory management


Citation of this Article

J.H.P Vithanage, Salwathura S.R, De Silva D.K.T.J.S, Wickramasinghe D.K.G.T.I, Suriya Kumari, Uthpala Samarakoon, “SMART TEA: Churn, Trend, Inventory and Sales Prediction System Using Machine Learning” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 11, pp 453-460, November 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.711061

References
  1. A.P. Ratto, S. Merello, L. Oneto, Y. Ma, L. Malandri, and E. Cambria, “Ensemble of Technical Analysis and Machine Learning for Market Trend Prediction,” in 2018 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (SSCI), Bangalore, India: IEEE, Nov. 2018, pp. 2090–2096. doi: 10.1109/SSCI.2018.8628795.
  2. J. Patel, S. Shah, P. Thakkar, and K. Kotecha, “Predicting stock and stock price index movement using Trend Deterministic Data Preparation and machine learning techniques,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 259–268, Jan. 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2014.07.040.
  3. I.Kumar, K. Dogra, C. Utreja, and P. Yadav, “A Comparative Study of Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms for Stock Market Trend Prediction,” in 2018 Second International Conference on Inventive Communication and Computational Technologies (ICICCT), Coimbatore: IEEE, Apr. 2018, pp. 1003–1007. doi: 10.1109/ICICCT.2018.8473214.
  4. P. Lalwani, M. K. Mishra, J. S. Chadha, and P. Sethi, “Customer churn prediction system: a machine learning approach,” Computing, vol. 104, no. 2, pp. 271–294, Feb. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s00607-021-00908-y.
  5. S. A. Qureshi, A. S. Rehman, A. M. Qamar, A. Kamal, and A. Rehman, “Telecommunication subscribers’ churn prediction model using machine learning,” in Eighth International Conference on Digital Information Management (ICDIM 2013), Islamabad, Pakistan: IEEE, Sep. 2013, pp. 131–136. doi: 10.1109/ICDIM.2013.6693977.
  6. A.K. Ahmad, A. Jafar, and K. Aljoumaa, “Customer churn prediction in telecom using machine learning in big data platform,” J Big Data, vol. 6, no. 1, p. 28, Dec. 2019, doi: 10.1186/s40537-019-0191-6.
  7. P. K. Dalvi, S. K. Khandge, A. Deomore, A. Bankar, and V. A. Kanade, “Analysis of customer churn prediction in telecom industry using decision trees and logistic regression,” in 2016 Symposium on Colossal Data Analysis and Networking (CDAN), Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India: IEEE, Mar. 2016, pp. 1–4. doi: 10.1109/CDAN.2016.7570883.
  8. C. Ntakolia, C. Kokkotis, P. Karlsson, and S. Moustakidis, “An Explainable Machine Learning Model for Material Backorder Prediction in Inventory Management,” Sensors, vol. 21, no. 23, p. 7926, Nov. 2021, doi: 10.3390/s21237926.
  9. R. B. De Santis, E. P. De Aguiar, and L. Goliatt, “Predicting material backorders in inventory management using machine learning,” in 2017 IEEE Latin American Conference on Computational Intelligence (LA-CCI), Arequipa: IEEE, Nov. 2017, pp. 1–6. doi: 10.1109/LA-CCI.2017.8285684.
  10. P. J. Bevan and A. Atapour-Abarghouei, “Detecting Melanoma Fairly: Skin Tone Detection and Debiasing for Skin Lesion Classification,” in Domain Adaptation and Representation Transfer, vol. 13542, K. Kamnitsas, L. Koch, M. Islam, Z. Xu, J. Cardoso, Q. Dou, N. Rieke, and S. Tsaftaris, Eds., in Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 13542. , Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2022, pp. 1–11. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-16852-9_1.
  11. J. Mentzer and M. Moon, Sales Forecasting Management: A Demand Management Approach. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks California 91320 United States: SAGE Publications, Inc., 2005. doi: 10.4135/9781452204444.
  12. S. Cheriyan, S. Ibrahim, S. Mohanan, and S. Treesa, “Intelligent Sales Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques,” in 2018 International Conference on Computing, Electronics & Communications Engineering (iCCECE), Southend, United Kingdom: IEEE, Aug. 2018, pp. 53–58. doi: 10.1109/iCCECOME.2018.8659115.
  13. M. Bohanec, M. Kljajić Borštnar, and M. Robnik-Šikonja, “Explaining machine learning models in sales predictions,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 71, pp. 416–428, Apr. 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2016.11.010.
  14. A.Schmidt, M. W. U. Kabir, and M. T. Hoque, “Machine Learning Based Restaurant Sales Forecasting,” MAKE, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 105–130, Jan. 2022, doi: 10.3390/make4010006.
  15. Y. Niu, “Walmart Sales Forecasting using XGBoost algorithm and Feature engineering,” in 2020 International Conference on Big Data & Artificial Intelligence & Software Engineering (ICBASE), Bangkok, Thailand: IEEE, Oct. 2020, pp. 458–461. doi: 10.1109/ICBASE51474.2020.00103.