Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for Kenya Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Technique
Abstract
This study employs annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for Kenya from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will
continue to decline throughout the out of sample period.
Therefore, we encourage authorities in Kenya to scale up awareness campaigns
among communities, promote girl child education and allocate funding towards
youth empowerment projects to improve their labor participation.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 147-152
United
Nations (2013). Adolescent Fertility since the International Conference on
Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo. UN Population Division, Department
of Economic and Social Affairs New York.
United
Nations (2019). World population prospects 2019: highlights. Department of
Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
Macro
KNBoSKaI. Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2014. Calverton, Maryland: KNBS
and ICF Macro, 2014.
Monari N.,
Orwa J., and AgwandaA (2022) Adolescent fertility and its determinants in
Kenya: Evidence from Kenya demographic and health survey 2014. PLoS ONE
17(1):e0262016.https:// doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262016
Lilian
Mutea., Vincent Were., Susan Ontiri., Kristien Michielsen., and Peter
Gichangi(2022). Trends and determinants of adolescent pregnancy: Results from
Kenya demographic health surveys 2003–2014.BMC Women's Health (2022) 22:416 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-022-01986-6
WHO (2017).
World Health Organization. Fact sheet: Adolescents: Health risks and solutions.
Geneva: WHO. 2017; 2017.
Banke-Thomas
O.E., Banke-Thomas A.O., and Ameh C.A (2017). Factors influencing utilization
of maternal health services by adolescent mothers in Low-and middle-income
countries: a systematic review. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 17(1):1–14.
Grønvik T.,
and Fossgard Sandøy I (2018). Complications associated with adolescent
childbearing in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic literature review and met
analysis. PLoS ONE.13(9):e0204327.
Olenja J.,
Krugu J.K., Kwaak v.d. A., Kawai D., Karanja S., Apanja M (2019). Factors
influencing teenage pregnancy among Maasai girls in Kajiado West Sub-County,
Kenya. An operational qualitative study report as part of the YES I DO
programme implemented from 2016 to 2020.
World
Health Organization (2007). Adolescent pregnancy: unmet needs and undone deeds:
a review of the literature and programmes. Geneva.
Neal S.,
Mahendra S., and Bose K (2016). The causes of maternal mortality in adolescents
in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review of the literature. BMC
Pregnancy Childbirth. 2016; 16:352.
Pradhan R.,
Wynter K., and Fisher J (2015). Factors associated with pregnancy among
adolescents in low-income and lower middle-income countries: a systematic
review. J Epidemiol Community Health. 69:918–924.
Kost K.,
and Lindberg L (2015). Pregnancy intentions, maternal behaviors, and infant
health: investigating relationships with new measures and propensity score
analysis. Demography. 52(1):83–111
United
Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable
development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
World
Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote
wellbeing for all at all ages.
United
Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development
2016.
United
Nations (1995). United Nations International Conference on Population and
Development, Cairo 5-13 September, 1994. Programme of Action. New York: United
Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.
