International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for Malawi Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Malawi from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is anticipated to decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage policy makers in Malawi to strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education and improve on the accessibility and affordability of adolescent health services especially in the rural areas. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 189-194

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702030

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