Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for Rwanda Using Holt’s Linear Method
Abstract
This research uses annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for Rwanda from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is expected to
decrease throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the
Rwandan government to scale up educational campaigns among communities,
continually promote girl child education and strictly enforce laws to protect
women’s rights.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 326-330
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