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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for South Africa Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 361-366

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702060

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the Republic of South Africa from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in South Africa to scale up educational campaigns, protect sexual and reproductive rights for women and girls, promote girl child education and provide accessible affordable adolescent healthcare services. 

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for South Africa Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 361-366, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702060

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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