International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for South Sudan Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research paper uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for South Sudan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue on a downward path to levels below 25 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in South Sudan to strictly enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive rights of women and girls, promote girl child education and avail funding for youth empowerment programs. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 373-377

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702062

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