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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for South Sudan Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 373-377

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702062

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Abstract

This research paper uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for South Sudan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue on a downward path to levels below 25 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in South Sudan to strictly enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive rights of women and girls, promote girl child education and avail funding for youth empowerment programs. 

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for South Sudan Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 373-377, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702062

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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