Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for Sudan Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Sudan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to drop and reach levels below 25 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Sudan to persistently enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education and scale up awareness campaigns through various media platforms.