Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This research article uses annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for Sudan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
drop and reach levels below 25 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the
end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Sudan to persistently
enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive health rights of women and
girls, promote girl child education and scale up awareness campaigns through
various media platforms.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 401-407