Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for Suriname Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for Suriname from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study
utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.7 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage
authorities in Suriname to focus on improving the quality and accessibility of
adolescent health services, promote respect of sexual and reproductive health
rights of women and girls, promote girl child education, fund empowerment
programs for youths and scale up awareness campaigns among communities.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 408-413
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