Adolescent Fertility Projection for Madagascar Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Madagascar from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Madagascar to focus on improving accessibility and affordability of adolescent sexual and reproductive health services, enforce laws that protect the girl child, promote girl child education and must establish a youth empowerment program that will enable youths to contribute meaningfully to the economic growth of the country.