International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Adolescent Fertility Projection for Malaysia Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 195-199

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702031

pdf iconFull Text PDF
Abstract

This research paper uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Malaysia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is expected to slightly increase in the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Malaysia to continue supporting adolescent health programs and address local factors that drive adolescent fertility. 

Keywords

.


Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Adolescent Fertility Projection for Malaysia Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 195-199, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702031

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
References
  1. The Sun Daily. (2015). Teenage pregnancy rate in Malaysia alarming: MoH. Retrieved from https://www.thesundaily.my/archive/1555812MSARCH329324
  2. UNFPA (2018). Addressing the patterns of child marriage, early union and teen pregnancy in Southeast Asia: A matter of urgency. Retrieved from https://asiapacific.unfpa.org/en/news/addressingpatterns-child-marriage-early-union-and-teenpregnancy-southeast-asia-matter-urgency.
  3. Fatimah Sham.,Wan Nur Atiqah Wan Mohd Zaidi., Zariq Nadia Zahari., Ajau Danis., and Salmi Razali (2020).Sexuality Means ‘‘Sex”: Opinions of Parents on Sexuality Education in Malaysia. International Journal of Caring Sciences. 13(3): 1818
  4. Johnson M., Myors K., and Langdon R (2001). Coping styles of pregnant adolescents. Public Health Nurs. 18:24–32.
  5. Papri F.S., Khanam Z., Ara S (2016). Adolescent pregnancy: risk factors, outcome and prevention. Chatt Maa Shi Hosp Med Coll J 2016;15:53–6
  6. UNICEF (2020). Early childbearing – UNICEF data. Available: https://data. unicef.org/topic/child-health/adolescent-health/#:~:text=Globally% 2C%20almost%20one%20in%20six,age%2018%20from% 202015%2D2020.
  7. Bernama (2019): Malaysia’s problem with teenage pregnancy. – Free Malaysia Today Official Portal. Available on:https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/01/03/malaysias-problemwith-teenage-pregnancy/
  8. Said, S. (2019): Need for a think-tank to tackle teenage pregnancy. – Malaysiakini Official Portal. Available on: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/460298
  9. Plan International (2021): Teenage pregnancy. – Plan International Official Portal. Available on: https://plan-international.org/sexual-health/teenage-pregnancy

Copyright @ 2026 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Licensed underCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.