Adolescent Fertility Projection for Malaysia Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research paper uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Malaysia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is expected to slightly increase in the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Malaysia to continue supporting adolescent health programs and address local factors that drive adolescent fertility. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 195-199

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702031

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