International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Analysing Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for New Zealand Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for New Zealand from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline to levels below 15 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in New Zealand to identify and address major drivers of teenage pregnancies in the country with the aim of averting adverse pregnancy outcomes. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 258-262

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702042

Full Paper
Download

References

  1. Johnson R, Denny SJ. (2007) The Health and Wellbeing of Secondary School Students attending Teen Parent Units in New Zealand. Auckland. The University of Auckland
  2. Brooks-Gunn, J; Furstenberg, Frank F. The children of adolescent mothers: Physical, academic, and psychological outcomes. Developmental Review. 6(3) (Sep 1986), 224-251.
  3. American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Adolescence. Care of adolescent parents and their children. Pediatrics 83 (1989).138-140.
  4. Horwitz, SM., Klerman, LV., Kuo, H.S., and Jekel, JF(1991). Intergenerational transmission of school-age parenthood. Family Planning Perspectives. 23(4):168-72, 177.
  5. CauB.M (2015). Community influences on contraceptive use in Mozambique. Health Place. 2015; 31:10–6.
  6. Patton G.C., Coffey C., Sawyer S.M., Viner R.M., Haller D.M., Bose K (2009). Global patterns of mortality in young people: a systematic analysis of population health data. Lancet. 374(9693):881–92.
  7. Blum R.W., and Gates W.H (2015). Girlhood, not motherhood: preventing adolescent pregnancy. New York: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA); 2015.
  8. UNFPA., UNESCO., and WHO (2015). Sexual and Reproductive Health of Young People in Asia and the Pacific: A Review of Issues, Policies and Programmes. Bangkok, Thailand: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and World Health Organization.
  9. Santelli J.S., Song X., Garbers S., Sharma V., and Viner R.M (2017). Global trends in adolescent fertility, 1990–2012, in relation to national wealth, income inequalities, and educational expenditures. J Adolesc Health. 60(2):161–8.
  10. Chandra-Mouli V., McCarraher D.R., Phillips S.J., Williamson N.E., and Hainsworth G (2014). Contraception for adolescents in low and middle income countries: needs, barriers, and access. Reprod Health. 11(1):1–15.
  11. Kirbas A., Gulerman H.C., and Daglar K (2016). Pregnancy in adolescence: is it an obstetrical risk? J PediatrAdolesc Gynecol. 29(4):367–71.
  12. Amjad S., MacDonald I., Chambers T., Osornio‑Vargas A., Chandra S., and Voaklander D (2019). Social determinants of health and adverse maternal and birth outcomes in adolescent pregnancies: a systematic review and meta‑analysis. Pediatric Perinat Epidemiol. 33(1):88–99.
  13. Grønvik T., and Fossgard S.I (2018). Complications associated with adolescent childbearing in Sub‑Saharan Africa: a systematic literature review and meta‑analysis. PLoS ONE 13(9):e0204327.

Copyright @ 2026-2017 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Developed by Byzero Technologies