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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Analysing Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for New Zealand Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 258-262

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702042

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Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for New Zealand from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline to levels below 15 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in New Zealand to identify and address major drivers of teenage pregnancies in the country with the aim of averting adverse pregnancy outcomes. 

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Analysing Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for New Zealand Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 258-262, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702042

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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