International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Analysing Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Togo Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 438-443

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702073

pdf iconFull Text PDF
Abstract

This research paper employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Togo from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Togo to support girl child education, finance youth empowerment projects and relentlessly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls amongst other measures. 

Keywords

.


Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Analysing Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Togo Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 438-443, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702073

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
References
  1. Darroch JE., Woog V., Bankol A., and Ashford LS (2019). Adding It Up: Costs and Benefits of Meeting the Contraceptive Needs of Adolescents. NewYork: Guttmacher Institute; 2016. https://www.guttmacher. Org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/adding-it-up-adolescentsreport.pdf.
  2. WHO (2011).WHO Guidelines on Preventing Early Pregnancy and Poor Reproductive Outcomes among Adolescents in Developing Countries. Geneva. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44691/9789241502214_eng.pdf?sequence=1.
  3. Althabe F., Moore J.L., Gibbons L., Berrueta M., Goudar S.S., Chomba E., Derman R.J., Patel A., Saleem S., and Pasha O (2015). Adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes in adolescent pregnancies: The Global Network's Maternal Newborn Health Registry study. Reprod Health. 12(Suppl 2):S8.
  4. Ganchimeg T., Ota E., Morisaki N., Laopaiboon M., Lumbiganon P., Zhang J., Yamdamsuren B., Temmerman M., Say L., Tuncalp O (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multicounty study. BJOG. 121(Suppl 1):40–8.
  5. Malabarey O.T., Balayla J., Klam S.L., Shrim A., and Abenhaim HA (2012). Pregnancies in young adolescent mothers: a population-based study on 37 million births. J Pediatr Adolesc Gynecol. 25(2):98–102.
  6. Klein J.D (2005). Adolescent pregnancy: current trends and issues. Pediatrics. 116(1):281–6. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2005-0999.
  7. Neal S., Matthews Z., Frost M., Fogstad H., Camacho A.V., and Laski L (2012). Childbearing in adolescents aged 12–15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue. New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand. 91(9):1114–8. https://doi.org/1 0.1111/j.1600-0412.2012.01467.x.
  8. WHO (2016). Global health estimates 2015: deaths by cause, age, sex, by country and by region, 2000-2015. Geneva.
  9. Odimegwu C and Mkwananzi S (2016). Factors associated with teen pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country cross-sectional study. Afr J Reprod Health. 20(3):94–107. https://doi.org/10.29063/ajrh2016/v20i3.14.
  10. Larsson M., Aneblom G., Odlind V., and Tydén T (2002). Reasons for pregnancy termination, contraceptive habits and contraceptive failure among Swedish women requesting an early pregnancy termination. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand. 81(1):64–71. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0001-6349.2001.00169.x.
  11. Sedgh G., Ashford L.S., and Hussain R (2016). Unmet need for contraception in developing countries: examining women’s reasons for not using a method. New York: Guttmacher Institute. 2:2015-6.
  12. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), African Union and African Development Bank Group U (2013). Assessing Progress in Africa toward Development Goals the Millennium: Food security in Africa: Issues, challenges and lessons. Addis Ababa.
  13. United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Adolescent pregnancy: A Review of the Evidence. New York: UNFPA; 2013.
  14. United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF): World population Day: Young People and Family Planning: Teenage Pregnancy 2008.
  15. United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The state of the world’s children 2011: Adolescence an age of opportunity. New York: UNICEF; 2011.
  16. UNICEF (2018). Child Marriage: Latest trends and future prospects.https://data.unicef.org/resources/childmarriage-latest-trends-and-future-prospects/.
  17. Neal S.E., Chandra-Mouli V., and Chou D (2015). Adolescent first births in East Africa: disaggregating characteristics, trends and determinants. Reprod Health. 12(13):13.
  18. Jewkes R., Morrell R., and Christofides N (2009). Empowering teenagers to prevent pregnancy: lessons from South Africa. Cult Health Sex. 11(7):675–88.
  19. Chigona A., and Chetty R (2007). Girls’ education in South Africa: special consideration to teen mothers as learners. J Educ Int Dev. 3(1):1–17.
  20. Bearinger L.H., Sieving R.E., Ferguson J., and Sharma V (2007). Global perspectives on the sexual and reproductive health of adolescents: patterns, prevention, and potential. Lancet. 369(9568):1220–31.
  21. Pettifor A.E., Rees H.V., Kleinschmidt I., Steffenson A.E., MacPhail C., Hlongwa Madikizela L (2005). Young people’s sexual health in South Africa: HIV prevalence and sexual behaviors from a nationally representative household survey. Aids. 19(14):1525–34
  22. Cau B.M (2015). Community influences on contraceptive use in Mozambique. Health Place. 31:10–6.
  23. United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) (2017). Adolescent Pregnancy: UNFPA; 2017. http:// www. unfpa. org/ adole scent- pregn ancy.
  24. Joyce C.B., Martinez G.M and Division of vital statistics (2017). National Health Statistics Reports, Number 104.
  25. WHO (2018). Family planning_ Contraception WHO.
  26. Loaiza E. and Liang, M. (2013) Teenage Pregnancy: A Review of the Evidence. UNFPA, New York.
  27. Bonell, C. (2005) The Effect of Dislike of School on Risk of Teenage Pregnancy: Testing of Hypotheses Using Longitudinal Data from a Randomized Trial of Sex Education. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 59, 223-230.  https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2004.023374
  28. Vikat A. (2002) Sociodemographic Differences in the Occurrence of Teenage Pregnancies in Finland in 1987-1998: A Follow Up Study. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 56, 659-668. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.56.9.659
  29. Nour, N.M. (2006) Health Consequences of Child Marriage in Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12, 1644-1649. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1211.060510
  30. Edgardh K. (2007) Sexual Behaviour and Early Coitarche in a National Sample of 17-Year-Old Swedish Boys. Acta Paediatrica, 91, 985-991.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1651-2227.2002.tb02889.x
  31. Joesephine P. and Premraj C (2016) Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health. Global Journal for Research Analysis ( GJRA ), 5, 167-168
  32. Rachakonda L., Rawate S and Shiradkar S. (2014) Teenage Pregnancy. International Journal of Current Medical and Applied Sciences, 4, 2059-2063.
  33. OMS (2012) Early Marriages, Teenage Pregnancies and Young Women. Report of the Secretariat Sixty-Fifth World Health Assembly. Genève.
  34. The Lancet Global Health. Countdown 2017 Report Annexes-Countdown to 2030 for Women’s, Children’s and Adolescents’ Health.  http://www.countdown2030.org/annexes

Copyright @ 2026 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Licensed underCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.