International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Analyzing Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Sao Tome and Principe Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Sao Tome and Principe from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Sao Tome and Principe to continuously enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education and provide accessible and affordable adolescent health services. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 331-336

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702055

Full Paper
Download

References

  1. United Nations Population Fund. Adolescent pregnancy: a review of the evidence. New York: UNFPA, 2013.
  2. World Health Organization (2016). Adolescents: health risks and solutions, Geneva.
  3. Jeha D., Usta I., Ghulmiyyah L., and Nassar A (2015). A review of the risks and consequences of adolescent pregnancy. J Neonatal Perinatal Med. 2015; 8:1-8. Medline:25766198 doi:10.3233/NPM-15814038
  4. Kamini S., and Avvaru K.V (2014). Teenage pregnancy: maternal and fetal outcomes. IOSR J Dent Med Sci. 2014; 13:41-4. doi:10.9790/085313464144
  5. UNICEF IN de E (INE) e. Inquérito de Indicadores Múltiplos, São Tome e Principe, MICS-STP, 2014, Principais resultados. SaoTome, SaoTome e Principe, INE e UNICEF. 2015; Instituto Nacional de Estatística, 2016. Inquérito aos Indicadores Múltiplos 2014 de São Tomé e Príncipe, Relatório Final. São Tomé, São Tomé e Príncipe. http:// ms. gov. st/ wp- conte nt/ uploa ds/ 2019/ 01/ MICS- Final- Report- STP_ Portu gu% C3% AAs. pdf.
  6. Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Princípe: 2018 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review International Monetary Fund. African Dept. International Monetary Fund, 2018_ ISBN 1484372255, 9781484372258. https:// www. ebooks. com/ en- us/ book/ 96331 484/ democ ratic- repub lic- of-s- o- tom- and- princ- pe/ inter natio nal- monet ary- fund- afric an- dept/.
  7. UNDP, UNDP. Human development indices and indicators: 2018 statistical update. 2018.at http:// hdr. undp. org/ sites/ defau lt/ files/ Count ry- Profi les/ STP. pdf 43. Sao Tome and Principe WHO statistical profile. WHO Libr. 2015. https:// www. who. int/ gho/ countries/stp. pdf.
  8. Ngowa J.D., Kasia J.M., Pisoh W.D (2015). Obstetrical and perinatal outcomes of adolescent pregnancies in Cameroon: a retrospective cohort study at the Yaoundé general hospital. Open J Obstetr Gynecol. 5(02):88.
  9. Ganchimeg T., Ota E., Morisaki N (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multicounty study. BJOG. 2014; 121:40–8.
  10. Mekonnen T., Dune T., and Perz J (2019). Maternal health service utilization of adolescent women in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic scoping review. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 19(1):1–6.
  11. Althabe F., Moore J.L., Gibbons L., Berrueta M., Goudar S.S., Chomba E., Derman R.J., Patel A., Saleem S., and Pasha O (2015). Adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes in adolescent pregnancies: The Global Network's Maternal Newborn Health Registry study. Reprod Health. 12(Suppl 2):S8.
  12. Blakemore S.J., and Mills K.L (2014). Is adolescence a sensitive period for sociocultural processing? AnnuRev Psychol. 2014; 65:187–207.
  13. Resnick M.D., Catalano R.F., Sawyer S.M., Viner R., and Patton G.C (2012). Seizing the opportunities of adolescent health. Lancet. 379(9826):1564–7.
  14. Gibbs C.M., Wendt A., Peters S., and Hogue C.J (2012). The impact of early age at first childbirth on maternal and infant health. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol. 26(Suppl 1):259–84.
  15. Sychareun V., Vongxay V., Houaboun S., Thammavongsa V., Phummavongsa P., Chaleunvong K (2018). Determinants of adolescent pregnancy and access to reproductive and sexual health services for married and unmarried adolescents in rural Lao PDR: a qualitative study. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 18(1):219
  16. Kaphagawani N., and Kalipeni E (2017). Sociocultural factors contributing to teenage pregnancy in Zomba district, Malawi. Glob Public Health. 12(6):694– 710. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2016.1229354.
  17. Wado Y.D., Sully E.A., and Mumah J.N (2019). Pregnancy and early motherhood among adolescents in five east African countries: a multi-level analysis of risk and protective factors. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 19(1):59. https://doi.org/1 0.1186/s12884-019-2204-z.
  18. Azzopardi P.S., Hearps S.J., and Francis K.L (2019). Progress in adolescent health and wellbeing: tracking 12 headline indicators for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016. The Lancet. 393(10176):1101–18.

Copyright @ 2026-2017 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Developed by Byzero Technologies