Applying Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Method in Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Sierra Leone

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Sierra Leone from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Sierra Leone to relentlessly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education, fund empowerment programs for youths and provide accessible and affordable adolescent health services across the whole country. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 344-348

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702057

References

  1. Statistics for Sierra Leone (2015). Population and Housing Census – summary of final results. https://fenam.online/assets/pdf/2015_ Population_And_Housing_Census%20_21-12-16.pdf
  2. Statistics Sierra Leone (2019). Sierra Leone Integrated Household Survey Report 2018.https://www.statistics.sl/images/StatisticsSL/Documents/SLIHS2018/SLIHS_2018_New/sierra_leone_integrated_household_survey2018_report. pdf
  3. Stark L., Tan T.M., and Muldoon KA (2015). Family structure and sexual and reproductive health outcomes among adolescents in rural Sierra Leone. Glob Public Health. 11(3):309–321. DOI:10.1080/17441692.2015. 1031155
  4. Statistics Sierra Leone (SSL) & UNICEF-Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2010, Final Report. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MICS4_SierraLeone_2010_FinalReport.pdf
  5. Statistics Sierra Leone and ICF Macro. Sierra Leone Demographic and Health Survey 2008. Calverton: SSL and ICF Macro; 2009.
  6. Statistics Sierra Leone (Stats SL) and ICF. Sierra Leone Demographic and Health Survey 2019: key indicators. Freetown: Stats SL and ICF; 2019.
  7. Statistics Sierra Leone (SSL). Sierra Leone Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2017, Survey Findings Report. Freetown: Statistics Sierra Leone; 2018 Available from: https://www.statistics.sl/images/ StatisticsSL/Documents/sierra_leone_mics6_2017_ report.pdf
  8. Hariri A.Y (2019). Salvation or suffering? Analyzing the impact of UN peacekeeping operations on health and safety of women in post-conflict environments.
  9. Espíndola JAG., and Bautista JCP (2017). Teenage pregnancy: a public health problem extensively studied but with no effective responses. Mexican J Med Res ICSA. 5(9):1–21.
  10. WHO U., and Mathers C. Global strategy for women’s, children’s and adolescents’ health (2016-2030). Organization. 201. p. 4–103.
  11. Jones S., Sam B., Bull F., Pieh S.B., Lambert J., and Mgawadere F (2017). ‘Even when you are afraid, you stay’: provision of maternity care during the Ebola virus epidemic: a qualitative study. Midwifery. 52:19–26.