Applying Holt’s Linear Method in Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Solomon Islands
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for Solomon Islands from 1960 to 2020 to predict
future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The
study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE.
The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is expected
to increase and remain high throughout the out of sample period. In order to
reverse the projected trend of adolescent fertility, authorities in Solomon
Islands should persistently enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive
health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education and scale up
awareness campaigns among communities in order to curb teenage pregnancy and
child marriage.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 349-354
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