International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Applying Holt’s Linear Method to Forecast Adolescent Fertility for Myanmar

Abstract

This research paper uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Myanmar from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Myanmar to continuously enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive rights of women and girls, and improve on accessibility and affordability of adolescent health services. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 241-246

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702039

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