Assessing the Feasibility of Achieving Substantial Reduction of Adolescent Fertility for Uganda Using Holt’s Linear Method

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Uganda from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will decline but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Uganda to strictly enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, support girl child education, scale up campaigns against sexual abuse of women and girls, and provide affordable and accessible adolescent health services.