Demonstrating the Importance of Evidence-Based Adolescent Health Policy-Making and Implementation of Effective Strategies in Iraq through the Use of a Smoothing Technique

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Iraq from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will hover around 72 births per 1000 women aged 15-19years throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage policy makers in Iraq to strictly enforce laws that protect the rights of women and girls, set up adolescent friendly clinics and establish a youth fund that will finance various youth empowerment projects.