International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Examining Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Venezuela Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Venezuela from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decrease but remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Venezuela to continue supporting girl child education, fund empowerment projects for youths, protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, and offer affordable and accessible adolescent health services. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 467-472

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702078

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References

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